Combat power is derived from target composition, unit statistics, critical chance, tracking, evasion, and global multipliers. Source
Evidence status — confirmed: Unless noted otherwise, mechanics are verified against the installed patch 11.73 guide.
Combat weights attack and defense against the opponent’s light/heavy mix.
weighted attack =
attack-vs-light × enemy light share +
attack-vs-heavy × enemy heavy share
weighted defense =
defense-vs-light × enemy light share +
defense-vs-heavy × enemy heavy share
Unit SPUs and carrier aura modify those contributions. Crit contributes 1 + average crit / 200. Tracking versus evasion contributes a multiplier clamped between 0.8 and 1.2:
tracking edge = clamp((tracking - enemy evasion) / 200, -0.2, 0.2)
Attacker power then applies fleet and global attack multipliers. Defender power combines its crit-adjusted attack, multiplier-adjusted unit defense, flat base defense, global defense, and tracking edge.
On an Attack, one side breaks. Loss fractions are scaled so the losing side is wiped. On a Raid, the same raw fractions start halved; raids are softer, not safe.
Large overmatch gives only a limited casualty discount. Attack incoming damage bottoms at 75% around 3× overmatch; raid incoming damage bottoms at 90%. Even an overwhelming fleet therefore continues to take meaningful incoming damage.
Small fleets suffer rounding:
lost ships = round(original count × loss fraction)
This makes one- and two-hull probes swing between no effect and total loss.